What a Pilot Value represents
Pilot Value is a relative index for comparing fantasy assets inside a specific league format. It is not projected fantasy points, auction dollars, or a claim about the exact price another manager will accept. A value of 90 indicates substantially more trade weight than a value of 60, but the relationship is not perfectly linear.
Stored baselines are editorial estimates informed by production, role and availability context. Dynasty and redraft use separate columns. The engine adjusts those estimates; it does not calculate a production projection, age curve or transaction-based market price.
How league settings change the baseline
| Setting | Primary adjustment | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Superflex | QB replacement premium | More starters than secure jobs |
| Full PPR | User catches × +0.5 | Relative to the half-PPR baseline |
| Standard | User catches × −0.5 | No automatic rushing or TD forecast |
| TE Premium | User catches × TE extra bonus | Two required TE starters add a separate 1.08 multiplier |
| Dynasty | Stored dynasty column + team-goal rules | No automatic age or liquidity forecast |
Receiving adjustments require an entered catch assumption. Without one, changing the reception scoring leaves the stored half-PPR index unchanged. TE bonuses apply only to tight ends. The score is a comparison index, not an expected weekly fantasy-point total.
Why package values use diminishing weights
Fantasy teams have limited starting spots and roster spots. The highest-value asset on each side receives full weight. Additional pieces receive progressively lower weights because their points are less likely to replace the production of the best player in the deal.
1: 100% · 2: 82% · 3: 67% · 4: 54%. These weights are modeling defaults, not coefficients fitted to a verified database of completed trades.
This adjustment is deliberately conservative. It prevents “four bench players equal one star” results, but it cannot know your exact roster. Deep leagues and best-ball formats can make depth more valuable.
The verdict language follows the size of the gap
A gap up to 6 adjusted index points is a preference call. From 7 it is a lean; from 15it is an edge; from 30 it receives a clear-leader label. High-volatility assets should reduce the user’s confidence even when the numerical gap is wide.
The thresholds create consistent language; they do not turn uncertain projections into facts. League market, lineup needs, injuries, and manager risk tolerance remain outside the current calculation.
Update cadence and known limitations
The current public model was last updated October 14, 2026. The in-season cadence is one scheduled weekly refresh plus event-driven review after major injuries, trades, suspensions, and depth-chart changes. Every material model update should retain a visible date.
- The public MVP contains a curated set of high-interest assets.
- It does not yet import a user’s complete roster or starting requirements.
- It does not predict whether another manager will accept an offer.
- Rookie pick projections can change dramatically during a season.
- Values are independent estimates and should not be presented as consensus.
What the refresh pipeline checks
The public asset file is refreshed against the Sleeper NFL player feed for active identities, team assignments, positions, and roster status. Those machine-readable fields help catch team changes and inactive players, but they are not a complete fantasy projection. Role, injury, and market context still require editorial review across current depth charts and established fantasy reporting.
A refresh does not move values merely because the calendar changed. The script records a new model date only when a numeric value changes. Team and risk changes can still be recorded as roster-context updates, and every material run produces a diff report that shows what changed. This avoids presenting a stale model as new while keeping the public data source and changelog aligned.
How to challenge a calculator result before acting
Start by checking the inputs: league type, scoring, quarterback format, team count, and competitive direction. Next, identify the strongest asset and verify that the package discount matches your league depth. Then ask which players enter each starting lineup and which player is cut. This exposes cases where printed value never becomes usable points.
Finally, review recent injury, suspension, depth-chart, and transaction news. The public score intentionally does not claim to know your waiver wire, another manager's preferences, or your precise playoff odds. If fresh information conflicts with the baseline, use the explanation to locate the disputed assumption instead of treating the number as an authority.
The trade value methodology follows this calculation order
First choose the stored dynasty or redraft column. Future rookie picks return zero in Redraft. A QB then receives the selected starting-rule multiplier: 0.82 in 1QB, 1.23 in Superflex, or 1.30 in 2QB. For the latter two formats, league size adds a multiplier of 1 + (teams − 12) × 0.018. Other positions do not get an automatic league-size replacement model.
Half PPR is the stored baseline. In engine 3, reception assumptions produce a separate fantasy-points scenario over one shared hypothetical week; they are not added to the editorial asset index. Missing catches remain unknown, while zero is an explicit assumption. A TE with two required starters receives a 1.08 index multiplier. Dynasty team-goal rules compare stored dynasty and redraft values, not an age-curve model. Balanced goals add no window adjustment. The index is rounded and constrained to 0–120; scenario points are not subject to that index cap.
Each side is sorted by adjusted value before package weights are applied. The package sum is rounded once, then the absolute gap selects verdict language. Risk labels remain context; they do not automatically calculate an injury probability or a second confidence score. The live example above reads the engine directly so you can reproduce the arithmetic after a dataset change.
A value is an editorial estimate with explicit adjustments, not a verified consensus transaction price. See actual model changes for update evidence and the fair-trade framework for the checks a close score cannot answer.
Inspect the stored assets in the trade value chart. For a league-specific example, compare the Superflex scarcity scenarios or the independent TE reception bonuses. The calculation rules are shared, but those pages answer different lineup and scoring questions.
Frequently asked questions
Are Pilot Values projected fantasy points?
No. Pilot Values are a relative trade index used to compare assets. They combine production outlook, role security, positional replacement cost, time horizon, and liquidity rather than predicting a specific point total.
Why does the calculator discount the second player in a package?
Additional players use roster spots and may replace players who were already startable. Diminishing weights reduce the chance that several bench pieces appear equal to one elite lineup asset.
Does a higher score guarantee that I win the trade?
No. The score is a directional estimate under stated assumptions. Lineup needs, local market demand, injuries, waiver options, and manager risk tolerance can justify a different decision.
When is the model update date changed?
The public model date changes when a refresh produces a real numeric value change. Scheduled checks that find no numeric change retain the previous model date rather than creating a cosmetic update.
Put the framework to work
Change the league settings, build both sides, and inspect the value gap before you send the offer.